Romney Revisionism

I don't know if he thinks lying makes it better, or if he really doesn't know what he's talking about. Generally, I follow Hanlon's Razor, and try not to attribute to malice what can just as easily be explained by stupidity, but either one seems plausible at this point.

Talking about what went wrong, Romney said they didn't get the turnout from minority voters that they needed and he acknowledged his campaign was outmatched by his opponent's massive organization.

"I think he had as many as 10 times the number of ground workers, paid staff, that we had, because he could afford them and we couldn't," he said.

Uh, Romney's campaign directly spent over $480 million. I'm pretty sure they could have afforded a better field program than the one they actually built.

The Obama campaign had more ground workers and paid staff because they managed their funds a lot better than Romney did and prioritized their field and data programs higher than Romney's. Mitt squandered a fortune on consultant fees and wildly mis-targeted his media buys, which wasted millions of dollars that could have gone to build a more competent field program.

He also came off as a self-important, dishonest, uncaring jerk, which might have had some impact on his low-dollar fundraising efforts. But either way, he could easily have afforded a better campaign, he just didn't have the skill to build one.

This Week in Radical Gundamentalism, Pt. II

Looks like Mitt Romney hit the bullseye with his five-year plan to get the gun lobby to ignore his past positions and accept his candidacy. A number of conservative legal scholars and practitioners just signed a letter endorsing Mitt and forming a new advisory group for legal affairs. The big news has been that the effort is being directed by famous failed nominee and Nixon hatchet man Robert Bork. But buried a little deeper is that Alan Gura, the E.F. Hutton of the gun law set ("when Alan Gura talks, gun deregulation fans listen"), is also joining the cause.

Gura is best known for winning the District of Columbia v. Heller case, establishing that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to gun ownership, and his part in the Chicago gun control law case that led Heller's holding to be extended to every state. His support might go a long way toward soothing over some hurt feelings over past slights. I'd be interested in learning how Romney bagged Gura's support, in case any enterprising young reporters out there are looking for a story.

Marijuana Legalization Initiative Kept Off Ohio Ballot

The same thing happened to Ralph Nader in 2008: a shockingly high number of petitions were deemed invalid for a variety of reasons. I wonder if there's a higher than average signature rejection rate in Ohio:

COLUMBUS — An effort to legalize medical marijuana in Ohio was stopped in its tracks Wednesday when supporters failed to get enough valid signatures on petitions, according to Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine’s office.

The proposal needed 1,000 signatures, but just 534 of the 2,134 turned in by supporters were deemed to be valid, according to a release to the media from DeWine’s office. That's about a 75% rejection rate for signatures. I've seen quite a few blog posts and tweets laughing about this as though the petitioners were just stoned slacktivists who didn't step up to the challenge. But getting over 200% of required signatures seems pretty on-the-ball to me. Something about this feels off.

The 2012 Veepstakes: Two Camps Emerge in the GOP

Keep this theme in mind for the next year and change: most Republicans running or stoking speculation are actually campaigning for the Veep slot and/or Cabinet appointments in the next GOP administration.

Thanks to the lack of a clear front-runner for the GOP nomination (Romney, Huckabee and Palin seem to be jockeying for the lead at this point, with none having a clear advantage over the others), the media is being treated to a glut of candidacies that can only be described as whimsical.  Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Kook-Kook-a-Choo, Newt Gingrich, etc.  And now the speculation has begun about non-candidacies from Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, the n00bz of the GOP salon scene.

But I don't think these minor figures are, for the most part, seriously looking to get elected President. Rather, I think they're preening in advance of someone else's candidacy.

Romney's considered too centrist for far-right tastes. He needs to be able to pick someone to head off a convention floor fight. Herman Cain--black, rich, wildly anti-health reform, and as likely as Palin to say crazy things--is a good fit for his ticket. Rick Santorum would work as well, as a bone for the anti-gay crowd.

Huckabee is positioning himself as the Values Voter's wet dream (do "Values Voters" get those?), so he needs someone who can boost him with other constituencies in order to put more states in play. Rubio is a great fit for that--young, Hispanic, only mildly corrupt, and from a high-value swing state.

Palin needs to have someone who at least appears to know what the hell he's doing. Newt, Huntsman or Bolton would fit well with that purpose (though I doubt that even ambition would get Huntsman to campaign with her).  But, let's be honest, there isn't enough support among GOP leaders for her to be nominated, and I doubt she's planning to run for exactly that reason (at least, not on the Republican line, but the Constitution Party would probably love to run her, and it's not like the Palins have an aversion to minor parties).

"Now, the WALRUS, on the other hand..."

John Bolton is not the duck, apparently.

He's also not a contender.

Don't underestimate this guy.

There's a man in Georgia named Herman Cain, and he's probably running for President.

I've actually seen him in person many times.  Back in 2004, I worked on a Democratic Senate campaign in Georgia while he was seeking the Republican nomination.  I was our candidate's personal assistant and driver, so I went out on the road to most events  Most "meet the candidates" events sponsored by civic groups were bipartisan, so he was frequently speaking while we were present.  He's personable and telegenic, yet hyperbolic and bombastic.  He's beyond right-wing on all social hot-button issues. 

He's like Sarah Palin without the massive disapproval ratings.  Oh, and did I mention he's black?

Normally, we could right him off as just another rich conservative running a vanity campaign (like a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morry_Taylor">Morry Taylor or Hugh Cort).  But Cain knows one big rule of politics is timing.  To that effect, he's putting himself out there in advance of the first debate of the campaign, an event at the Reagan Presidential Library being held this spring.

All he has to do is make a scene and look more conservative than any of the other early birds who've made early announcements.  If he does, he could become the Howard Dean of 2012 (remember, Dean rocketed to popularity on the heels of a widely circulated video of a California speech given in March 2003).

Is that enough for Cain to win the nomination?  Almost certainly not.  My memory isn't great, but I don't think either party's nominated someone for President who wasn't a current or former elected official since Wendell Willkie in 1940 (excepting, of course, the Man Who Won WWII).  But this could be Cain's coming out party, a chance for him to burst onto the national stage in a shower of confetti and political insanity.

Keep an eye on him.